But that only works well, if you know when the dip ends..
Is the end of the fall here yet..?
I told myself when it was at 16.000,- euro's, that I'd start buying again when it hit 8000,- euro's. (or 50%) But it didn't feel right. So I didn't..
That moment has long gone, but now I was a bit at a loss..
So I took my original projection from 20-11-2017
and put the most recent course on that (purple line below in the next paragraph). As you may remember, I started warning for a crash, the moment we hit that green line on top. We went way further through than I could imagine, and so I think we will see at least very close to a maximum dip right now. But what is the maximum dip (or minimum) and when will it be?
Where and when will the minimum be?
I still think the minimum will be at the moment we hit the red line. (yellow line projects current drop to that point) We may go a bit deeper, because the high was so high and the ensuing panic may have scared a lot of people of or poisoned them against the concept of de-centralised (non-fiat) currencies and transactions (not blockchain or DAG/tangles per se, which most people can agree upon is a good thing).We might also see some more regulation, which will probably scare people of.
But the moment to start buying according to my original predictions would be:
at 4610,- euro's which will occur at 19/02/2018 at 19:00 hours ( :) ). That is WAY to precise to be learned from such a graph, but I might be exactly right, how cool would that be?
But.... to be honest... I have the feeling the low will be later and lower than I first predicted, because the high was so much later and higher than I predicted..
I've decided to wait it out at least until 19/02/2018 OR 4610,- euro's, whichever comes first.
I think 4600,- euro's must be possible considering how enormous the positive spike was and anyway it's easier to remember than 4610.
Is that enough margin for error?
It went 6000,- euro's over my maximum. Which at that point was 60% more than I ever expected.Well 60% less than expected would be 40% of 4600,- so: 1840,- euro... Jaaaaiks.
Yes, I'll definitely hold of.. Maybe my dream of holding one complete bitcoin again will come to pass (again).
Winklevoss Twins prediction
The winklevoss Twins made an outrageous prediction (or so people say)..If anyone is still interested, if my original projections were correct, the Winklevoss twins will see their prediction of 320.000,- dollar, or about 260.000,- euro's by 1/10/2019 according to my schedule.
Wouldn't that be amazing! But since they said by 2020, it seems I'm even a bit more positive than they are. However, they advice you to buy now.. I'm not there yet.
Anything you put in at 1840,- (somewhere around 01/04/2018 if the present fall continues) will then be at 14100% profit by 2020.
A quick comparison..
So buying at 1840,- for 100,- euro will give you 14.100,- euro by 2020
at 4600,- it will be a 5600% profit (100,- -> 5.600,- euro)
and at 3700% profit if you buy NOW at 7000,-. (100,- -> 3.700,- euro)
This is presuming fiat-currencies haven't crashed by 2020.. The buying power of 14.100 euro might be not much different from 1000,- euro now.. (Yes, I said that!)
Yeah.. I'm gonna mostly wait it out... maybe buy a bit.. to spread my risks.
Especially because the fees are still very high, which makes it stands to reason to buy all you want to buy in one go at the lowest point.
It's just hard to find that lowest point. But I was remarkably accurate in my predictions so far.. (only off by 60%, haha)
Hope this helps you decide a bit what you want to do with cryptocurrency.
I.C.O. Byteball
I bought some byteball. Not much. Toe in the water.
Even though the system byteball uses is wildly different from the blockchain, it still follows the bitCoin course rather closely. Way more closely than I hoped, I made some profit but it's really small. It kind of strengthens my idea that I.C.O's are not for me..
Classic Bubble
I don't know if you saw this graph:
it's from the financial times of last year.. from when bitCoin was around 5000 dollars.
It didn't turn out to be right. I don't think they took into account, bitCoin has been acting normally only on log-paper..But maybe there is still something we can learn?
Looking at the classic bubble, this is basically what I'm talking about. I think the blue line (in my graph) is the median (the dotted line in this graph), only it's still exponential.
The rest is pretty standard. But look at what happens AFTER the 'Despair' period... It rises again and pretty steeply. In fact, if you look at previous bubbles, we see a lot of companies went on to make a LOT of profit. (Of course a lot of them never got out of the despair phase and died, which is what happens when that line hits 0..)
But I think there is a hard core community for bitCoin, which won't ever allow it to go below 500,- , no matter what happens. Those are the idealists and they carried the coin for 5 years already, they don't scare easily... So going to 0 isn't really an option I.M.O..
So if I'm right, the whole question is WHERE in the despair period are we.. And I'm betting we just started it.
But let's see what happens between now and 19/02/2018 or even april 2018, which is, unless amazing things happen in the meantime, when I hope to post about bitCoin again, telling you I just bought at 1800,- :).
