BITCOIN, PICK YOUR PREDICTION..

Predictions are tricky business.

So, I'm going to let you do the hard work..

There seem to be two opinions..

BITCOIN WILL SOAR, like this...

...and reach $1.000.000 somewhere in 2023. If you look at the graph of the ALL time course up to now, this seems quite reasonable, even if it is about the same time that bitCoin has been on the market, that it has to survive. Maybe the future market WILL stabilise the bitCoin and is will follow a straight line (on log-paper, that is) to that million ..

or like this....

Wait, what? It could also grow to a million in just 3 years? Well yeah, this looks just as convincing, but that's kind of the problem.. What do and what don't you take into account.

I just made these two graphs, to show you both can be convincing. I don't know what's going to happen. No one does.. So WHY do so many people say...

BITCOIN WILL CRASH...

...and will drop to less than 1 dollar bij 2020? (Or even faster). This is what a bubble would be, they say.. But this is discontinuous and I'd say the burden of proof lies with someone expecting something discontinous to happen.. Looking in logarithmic space, bitcoin has been pretty consistent even with potentially catastrophic events, like the mtGox hacking or a recent ban in China. 

What event could spark this downfall? What could be big enough?
There are plenty of candidates, the trouble around bitfinex seems to be the latest fad. All these things are showing in the price, but it's always kept going..
Also if you look at the historic data of bitCoin, you see quite a few crashes.. Bitcoin dropping to a quarter of it's former price in a matter of days. Now some will say, we are waiting for a disaster, but every time up to now, they were proven wrong. This has happened 3/4 times allready.

BITCOIN WILL DIVERSIFY..

Obviously both predictions are a bit short sighted.. So we might need a new model...

I stated earlier that there is some logic to bitCoins exponential growth, because the marketing is similar to that of a social Media platform. So maybe we should look at those platforms.. Like Facebook.

Looking at this historic data of photo's shared on Facebook. Facebook's inital run was exponential, up until 2011. Then it started growing at a much slower rate. But something else happened. Facebook started buying other brands and expanding its own technology to share photo's. And if you look at the growth of that blue/green stack, it's still exponential..

I think something similar will happen to bitCoin. There will be platforms that build on bitCoin, like LiteCoin, there will be new technology, like ByteBall/IOTA's DAG and bitCoin itself will improve.

Hodling will bring you some of the profits, but not all. We have to keep on the lookout for something better. 

The king is dead, long live the king...

And then there are the believers, who say that after a bubble pops, the future still looks bright.. 

Look at internet they will say.. It crashed (dotcom-bubble), but after that, it continued growing at a more reasonable rate..

Google Trends

Maybe, when we look at the interest in bitCoin on google Trends we can get some insights.. It seems interest was growing exponentially and then in december suddenly cooled a lot.. Still this did not result in much of a pricedrop. (Even if I hoped it would..) 

Really, I don't know any more.. Just pick your own future..